Recent developments in business cycle theory, promulgated by both new classicals and new Keynesians, have had close to zero impact on practical policymaking [...] The real world of macroeconomic policymaking can be disheartening for those of us who have spent most of our careers in academia. The sad truth is that the macroeconomic research of the past three decades has had only minor impact on the practical analysis of monetary or fiscal policy. The explanation is not that economists in the policy arena are ignorant of recent developments. Quite the contrary: The staff of the Federal Reserve includes some of the best young Ph.D.’s, and the Council of Economic Advisers under both Democratic and Republican administrations draws talent from the nation’s top research universities. The fact that modern macroeconomic research is not widely used in practical policymaking is prima facie evidence that it is of little use for this purpose. The research may have been successful as a matter of science, but it has not contributed significantly to macroeconomic engineering.
miércoles, mayo 16, 2007
la ciencia inútil, dicen los que saben
Tuve que releer el artículo de Mankiw sobre los macroeconomistas como científicos y como ingenieros. Su mirada sobre la historia de la macroeconomía es concisa, está buena (Aunque sigue siendo más linda la Bandera Sueca de Leijonhufvud, que no puedo encontrar online). Las conclusiones de Mankiw son algo más que desalentadoras para la profesión: