martes, julio 18, 2006

no te hagas el vivo, paul krugman

Krugman tira la primera piedra: señala las contradicciones del gobierno republicano en Medio Oriente: "Since the cast of characters making pronouncements on the crisis in the Middle East is very much the same as it was three or four years ago, it's a good idea to travel down memory lane". Hay que pagar para acceder al artículo completo en NYTimes, pero La Ciencia Maldita te hace el favor y te lo pega acá.

Pero, Paul, vos también tenés pecado. No te hagás el vivo porque tampoco resistís un archivo. Sos como Lavagna: los grandes devaluacionistas, pero después de haber estado well in the closet en el momento en que sólo los Conesas aconsejaban con todas las letras la devaluación. Mirá lo que escribías en 1998:

[This] brings us to Latin America. Focus on Brazil, although Argentina’s situation is similar in some respects […] There is little inflation, but high and rising unemployment, together with a worrying external deficit. The textbook analysis clearly indicates, then, that Brazil’s relative costs are too high […] How can relative costs be reduced? Well, the obvious, textbook answer is a devaluation, which brings about an immediate reduction in costs measured in terms of other countries’ currencies. And five years ago many economists – myself included – might have cheerfully recommended a one-time devaluation, or a temporary period of floating, as a way to get Brazil’s relative costs into the right place. After all, Britain and Sweden did it in 1992, and nothing bad happened […] But nobody who looks at the terrible experiences of Mexico in 1995 or Thailand in 1997 can remain a cheerful advocate of exchange rate flexibility.

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